Trump's Hormuz dilemma

2026-03-17 - 22:54

There was a sense of satisfaction across Israel's security establishment after final confirmation arrived that two key figures, Ali Larijani and Gholam Soleimani, had been eliminated. When Israel has long referred to Iran as the "head of the snake," it has had figures like these in mind. They were responsible not only for violence against their own people, but also, directly and indirectly, for attacks against Jews and Israelis. By that logic, their removal is seen as making the world a safer place. Their deaths, alongside a series of heavy blows inflicted on the regime over the past two and a half weeks, are expected to deeply destabilize Iran's leadership. The coming days will show whether the sustained strikes and targeted killings prompt any reassessment among those still in power or, more likely, drive the regime to intensify its hardline stance. Historically, escalation has been its default response. If that pattern holds, Israelis should prepare for a prolonged conflict. There is currently no indication that the war is nearing its end. On the contrary, breaking the regime's grip will require many more Israeli and US air operations. Seizing the oil island? One scenario under consideration is that President Donald Trump could order US Marines to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub. Such a move would offer a clear image of victory while effectively severing the financial lifeline of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, any such operation would likely be launched only once risks to US troops are minimized. In practical terms, that means additional days of sustained bombardment before Washington could declare success. Another major challenge is the Strait of Hormuz. While Israel is focused on missile threats from Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist organization, and Iran, Trump is prioritizing the strategic waterway vital to Gulf economies. US officials have repeatedly stated that the war cannot end as long as Iran retains the ability to threaten or close the strait. US Central Command chief Gen. Brad Cooper said Tuesday that "we are focused on dismantling the decades-long threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz." Despite their clear naval and military superiority, the US is reluctant to engage directly in a large-scale confrontation in the strait. Senior naval officials understand that even a single successful Iranian strike on a US-flagged vessel would hand Tehran a significant psychological victory. As a result, US aircraft carriers and other major assets are being kept at a considerable distance, denying Iran viable targets. Ahead of the war, Iran's leadership released propaganda videos depicting the sinking of US aircraft carriers. For now, however, it is Iran that is being overwhelmed by sustained Israeli and US airstrikes. An Iranian missile boat in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: EPA China as the key player Still, the fundamental question remains: how does one secure a decisive outcome in the Strait of Hormuz? One possible answer lies with China. A summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had been scheduled for late March and was considered by Beijing to be one of its most important diplomatic events of 2026. However, the White House announced Tuesday that the meeting would be postponed. The delay may serve as leverage, pressuring China to rein in Iran, on which it has significant economic influence. There are differing assessments regarding China's dependence on Iranian oil. What is clear, however, is that keeping the strait open is critical to China's trade and economic stability, arguably even more so than for the US. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AFP "China could see this as an opportunity," said Carice Witte, head of the Signal Group, which specializes in China. "Beijing may lead a non-military initiative that benefits both itself and the US. The fact that reopening the strait would also help Washington would not deter China, as long as it stands to gain. From China's perspective, ensuring open shipping routes is vital for trade. Moreover, if it can position itself as a global mediator that resolves crises peacefully, it earns significant international credit. Add to that the importance Beijing places on a meeting with Trump, and it is entirely plausible that China will try to intervene on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz." Even so, there is no guarantee of success. For Iran, the threat of closing the strait remains its primary leverage against the US. While limited, it is unlikely to be relinquished easily. Iranian officials claim the waterway remains open to countries that cooperate with them, suggesting that China may not be directly affected. However, it is unclear how accurate those claims are, as current indications suggest that much of the Gulf's maritime traffic has slowed or stalled. In any case, current assessments point to at least two more weeks of Israeli and US strikes in Iran, possibly longer. The campaign has already achieved significant results. Even if the regime ultimately survives, it is expected to take years to rebuild its extensive weapons industry, which it used in efforts to destroy the State of Israel. From Israel's perspective, that alone is a meaningful strategic gain.