The American-Israeli plan: Chaos will push for a coup against Revolutionary Guards

2026-03-03 - 17:29

The United States has been intensifying efforts to forge a broad opposition coalition inside Iran, with the explicit goal of achieving what American and Israeli strategists describe as the central objective of any strike on the regime – its complete replacement. According to intelligence and assessment sources, the American effort has focused not only on ethnic groups such as the Kurds and Baluchis but also aimed primarily at recruiting support from within the ranks of Iran's regular army, from public figures and local leadership, and even from senior regime officials considered relatively moderate. President Trump himself hinted at this effort in an interview with Politico on Tuesday. When asked whether it was too late to consider working with figures in a new Iranian government, he replied, "No, not too late. 49 were killed, don't forget, so it's pretty deep, right? New ones are popping up. A lot of people want the job. Some of them will be very good."  Video: Iranian celebrations abroad following Khamenei's death The regime rests on two separate military arms: the regular army, which defends the country's borders, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a parallel force established after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 as a counterweight to an army then considered loyal to the Shah. The IRGC answers directly to the Supreme Leader – not to the elected president – and also controls the Basij militia, which serves as the primary instrument of protest suppression. The hope is that the regular army will prove more committed to Iran's survival as a functioning state and, when the moment arrives, will act against the ideological establishment led by IRGC commanders and the religious hierarchy. As part of these contacts, American officials have been holding talks with Kurdish leaders in northern Iran and Iraq, with Baluchi militia leaders in southeastern Iran, and with additional opposition groups. According to reports, the goal is to prepare all these factions for the decisive day when, following the degradation of regime forces – chiefly the IRGC – the desired change will take place. The US and Israel are seeking a full replacement of the regime, with the various groups expected to join what is anticipated to be an internal armed confrontation, as regime loyalists – and there are many – will not yield without a fight. According to intelligence and assessment sources, this process is expected to take at least a week, even if the strikes on Iran's leadership, and primarily the IRGC, prove highly effective and most of the leadership has been eliminated. Reports indicate that the IRGC has been preparing itself and affiliated units – including the Basij – for that day, and the expectation is that the struggle will be fierce. One possibility is that peripheral provinces where separatist movements are strong could move ahead of the timeline and seize cities and territory. Among Iran's ethnic minorities operate underground organizations with a rich history and a proven ability to strike at the ayatollahs' regime and wage sustained guerrilla warfare against it. In the Kurdish region of northwestern Iran, several Kurdish rebel organizations are active – most of them supported in one way or another by the autonomous Kurdish government in Iraq. On February 22, five Iranian Kurdish parties, led by the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), formed a joint coalition with the declared aim of toppling the Islamic regime. The coalition fields Peshmerga fighters who have undergone training in Iraq and are well-versed in the mountainous terrain along the border between the two countries. During Operation Roaring Lion, several strikes were carried out on Iranian strongholds along the border, with the aim of weakening Tehran's grip on the region and potentially enabling an armed Kurdish uprising. US President Donald Trump overseeing "Operation Epic Fury" activity against Iran from Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida (Photo: Daniel TOROK / The White House / AFP) Another ethnic group waging a sustained insurgency is the Baluchis, a Sunni minority straddling the territories of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, who seek self-determination and autonomy. The IRGC has in recent years conducted an unprecedented crackdown on the Baluchi minority. The central active organization on the Iranian side is Jaish al-Adl, which, in December 2025, merged with additional groups into the "Popular Fighters' Front" and declared a broad struggle against the regime. The third ethnic minority in Iran with a history of armed resistance to the government is the Arabs of the southern Khuzestan Province – predominantly Shia Arabs whose population numbers more than a million and a half. In 2022, large protests against Tehran's rule took place in the province, and clashes between Arab separatists and regime forces resulted in several deaths. The idea of making use of Iran's ethnic minorities, despite its practical appeal given the presence of resistance organizations on the ground, is particularly controversial among the Iranian opposition. Many opponents of the regime hold nationalist and even chauvinistic worldviews and would struggle to cooperate with rebels whose autonomy aspirations conflict with Iran's territorial integrity. The hope is that, faced with such a scenario – in which Iran is gripped by an existential internal struggle alongside external military and economic pressure – elected political figures will demonstrate responsibility and, together with the army, position themselves against the "Masada complex" being driven by the IRGC, and take control of the decision-making apparatus. Whatever the resulting political constellation, it will serve as a transitional phase toward a post-Islamic Republic Iran. The understanding is that a change in the regime will precede any change in the regime.