Rising possibility of US raid in Iran

2026-03-21 - 20:35

Israeli assessments indicate that the US is not expected to end the war before there is a clear understanding that its objectives have been achieved. According to three separate sources, most signs point to preparations for the next stages of expanding the fighting and striking new categories of targets, including nuclear facilities such as the US strike in Natanz using bunker-buster bombs on Saturday, as well as infrastructure sites. At the same time, Washington is working to resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. "It is not a certainty, but in the coming week Israel and the US are expected to continue fighting shoulder to shoulder against Iran," one source said. For how long? "That depends to a large extent on the ability to neutralize the missile threat, deal with enriched uranium and reopen Hormuz." In that context, there are growing indications of a possible deployment of US ground forces in the war in Iran, aimed at reopening the strait to tanker and commercial shipping traffic. Reports in the US media present this option as a limited operational move focused on specific objectives, primarily two. Israeli strike in Iran. Photo: Reuters The first is control over coastal areas near the strait that are used to attack tankers and threaten maritime movement. The second is Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub. The first objective is complex, as Iran's rocket and drone threats are not limited to coastal areas. However, control of these zones would enable earlier and more effective monitoring and interception. The second objective, Kharg Island, is intended mainly to give control over Iran's primary oil export channel. A senior security source said this option is less likely. According to him, if the Americans wanted to shut down Iran's oil exports, they could simply prevent Iranian tankers from passing through the strait. "Just as Iran can close the strait, the Americans can as well," he said. Washington's policy appears to be moving in the opposite direction. On Saturday, it was reported that the US would allow Iranian tankers already at sea to deliver their oil to destination markets in order to ease shortages. Trump is seeking to regulate prices to prevent them from rising too high and limiting his freedom of action in the war. Meanwhile, several diplomatic channels are active with Iran. European countries are trying to reach a comprehensive arrangement to ensure passage of ships and tankers through Hormuz, with Iran receiving in return the ability to export its oil freely. However, Iran is also demanding ransom payments for each vessel and a veto over ships from certain countries. Oil tankers sail through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route at the center of escalating tensions between Iran and the US, in this undated file photo. Reuters At the same time, India, China and Japan are holding direct talks with Iran to secure approval for oil shipments destined for them. Japan, which depends on Saudi and Emirati oil, has said the talks were successful and that at least some tankers would be able to sail. India and China have already delivered Iranian oil to their ports and are working toward broader arrangements that would also allow shipments from Gulf states. Iran's representatives in talks with Europe include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian, with discussions also addressing ways to end the war. India's contacts are being conducted at the leadership level between Pezeshkian and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A key obstacle in talks with Iranian officials is the need for approval from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which effectively controls the country and its oil sector. For that reason, China is holding direct discussions with senior Revolutionary Guard officials. As Iranian oil receives approval to leave the Gulf, China is expected to be its primary destination. The US military destroys 16 Iranian vessels used for laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: US Central Command. Militarily, the offensive campaign has been highly effective, with timelines for destroying designated targets brought forward, including missile and drone launchers, storage facilities and production sites. Other military assets, including much of Iran's air force and navy, have been largely destroyed, alongside regime facilities across the country and a long list of targeted killings of senior figures. However, Iran still retains sufficient offensive capabilities to disrupt daily life in Gulf states and Israel, and to close the Strait of Hormuz. A senior diplomatic source rejected suggestions that there is frustration over the lack of a decisive blow to the regime despite military successes. Speaking to Israel Hayom, the source claims the Iranian regime has suffered irreversible damage. Even if the war ended today, the source said, it would not return to what it was, describing it as a regional terrorist state. "Day by day, there are more defections across all branches of the regime's forces. In many peripheral areas, central authority no longer exists. The command structure is broken and control over forces has been severely damaged." Israeli Air Force strikes targets in Tehran. Photo: AFP At the same time, the source acknowledged that missile launch capabilities still exist, though significantly weakened, and estimated that another week or slightly more would be needed to reduce them to a minimum. He also cited weather conditions and cloud cover as complicating efforts to locate launchers. Among the notable developments was the launch on Saturday of long-range missiles toward the US-British base on Diego Garcia, with an estimated range of 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles). This far exceeds previous statements by the Iranian regime, including by Araghchi, that Iran would not possess missiles with ranges beyond 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). This development is seen as a wake-up call for Europe, as the extended range places much of the continent within reach of Iranian missiles. European countries continue to face sharp criticism from President Donald Trump over their lack of involvement, at least in defending Hormuz. Israel Hayom has learned that the British Royal Air Force has been operating since the early days of the war in defensive missions in several Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as in Jordan. According to this information, RAF forces are responsible for a significant portion of the interceptions of missiles and drones launched by Iran toward Gulf states.