Retired US general: "Neither Israel nor the US will topple the Iranian regime"

2026-03-19 - 14:15

Against the backdrop of the war in Iran and US military involvement, retired US Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz believes that neither Israel nor the United States will succeed in toppling the regime in Tehran. In a conversation with Israel Hayom correspondent Itay Ilnai, Schwartz explained why an internal coup is unlikely, ruled out a ground invasion, addressed security cooperation with Israel, and outlined what he sees as the next major threat in the regional arena. "In my professional assessment, neither Israel nor the US will fully succeed in replacing the Iranian regime. The main reason is that there are dozens, if not hundreds, of Iranian religious leaders who can replace the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, if he is eliminated. No matter how many successors you kill one after another, there will always be another one in line. Iran's intelligence and security apparatus, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian military also have depth. They are capable of replacing the top of the organization if it is destroyed." Q: What about the possibility of toppling the regime from within? Israel's defense minister recently called on the Iranian people to take to the streets and "save Iran." President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have made similar statements in the past. "That won't happen. To stop a coup, the regime in Tehran needs weapons, the will, and the directive to kill protesters. The Iranian leadership has already proven it has all of these, and in abundance. For them, the most important thing is the regime's survival. They have no problem killing another 30,000 protesters if the regime is threatened from within. I think Israel has understood this, and the US has not yet fully internalized it. You must never underestimate the survival capacity of a state or a society driven by fundamentalist religious fervor, or their ability to endure. We saw this with Hezbollah, with Hamas, and now with Iran as well. At the same time, you also shouldn't overestimate the ability of a popular movement to bring down a regime. I don't buy the possibility of a coup." Soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division (Photo: AFP) Invasion? "Stupid" Q: What about an American ground invasion? In the US, you call it "boots on the ground." "Even if the US were to send ground forces into Iran, it wouldn't help. Look at what happened in Iraq, for God's sake. Even now, years after Iraq was supposedly 'liberated,' there are Iranian-backed Shiite militias that largely control Iraq's security apparatus in practice." Q: So you don't see any chance of an American ground invasion. "Absolutely not. It would be stupid of us to do that." The speaker is retired US Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz, who served 33 years in the United States Armed Forces. It is particularly interesting to speak with Schwartz at this moment – and not only because he holds the rank of lieutenant general. Schwartz spent most of his career in the Green Berets and is intimately familiar with the full range of capabilities of the world's most powerful military and its methods of operation. Having served at the most sensitive junctions of the American national security system – on the seam between military force and statecraft – and having led vast operations involving multiple countries, he knows a thing or two about the dynamics of war, regime change, and navigating the competing interests of leaders, states, and armies. Beyond all of this, Schwartz has an intimate familiarity with – and a warm spot in his heart for – the Israeli defense establishment. In his last posting, he served as the US security coordinator between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, a three-year assignment during which he was based in Israel and worked closely with senior Israeli officers. "I worked mainly with then-Central Command chief Major General Nadav Padan and the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Ghassan Alian," Schwartz said. "Two great guys. Another person I greatly respected was M., from the Shin Bet, who at the time was head of the Judea and Samaria district within the service and who recently retired from the Shin Bet after serving as deputy to Ronen Bar. It was a pleasure working with him." The person who earned the most praise from Schwartz was Zohar Palti, a former Mossad official who at the time served as head of the security-diplomatic division at the Defense Ministry. "I can definitely call Zohar a friend," Schwartz said. Exceptional cooperation Schwartz's knowledge of the Middle East extends well beyond his time in Israel. Before arriving there, he commanded the US-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, which included dozens of countries. Over the course of his long career, he also served in senior positions at NATO and at US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), where he worked alongside Israeli counterparts on counterterrorism. The conversation with Schwartz – who comes across as a particularly warm personality – took place last week by phone from Colorado, where he has lived since retiring from active service in 2021. General Mark Schwartz with members of the Palestinian security forces (Photo: AFP) Schwartz, who now serves as a security adviser to the prestigious RAND Corporation and as a consultant to American security bodies, said he was not surprised that his country joined Israel "all in" in its war against Iran. "I was not surprised at all," he said. "We share the same strategic objectives – Israel and the US – and I am very proud of the strategic relationship between our two countries. I was very pleased with the support America provided to Israel throughout the war, and especially now. The current US president is more hawkish in his desire to eliminate the threat Iran poses. From the moment he took office, he expressed his commitment to returning the hostages and reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, so I was not at all surprised when the US entered the war." Something else that pleased Schwartz was seeing American F-22 fighter jets land on Israeli soil in the days leading up to the surprise strike on Iran. "During the force buildup for the Iran campaign, Israel allowed the US to station fighter jets on its soil for the first time for operational purposes," he said. "That is unprecedented. We are used to operating in the region from aircraft carriers, from Jordan, and from other countries in the area, but we were never able to take off directly from Israel for operational missions. To be honest, we never had a need for it either – at least not in my time." What a coalition looks like One of Schwartz's past roles was commanding the US-led multinational force sent to Afghanistan to stabilize the country following the American war there – a combined force drawn from NATO, additional countries, and local Afghan forces. "A massive coalition that at its peak included more than 50 countries," he said. "In fact, I have been involved in 'coalition warfare' since September 11." Today, we are seeing a military coalition operating against Iran, led by the US and Israel but also incorporating other countries – Gulf states and certain European nations. As someone with deep firsthand experience, what does it take for different militaries to work well together? "The first thing you need is a deep understanding of your partner's capabilities – but no less importantly, the areas where your partner is limited. You have to understand that every country has constraints on the use of military force, based on what its political leadership permits and what it does not permit. Operational plans, chains of command, and use of force must all be built around those constraints. Even the US has diplomatic constraints – everyone has different rules of engagement." Q: According to media reports, Israel has carried out many targeted killings in Iran – including that of Khamenei – while the US has preferred to avoid them. Is that what you mean? "It is probably true that Israel carried out those assassinations, but not necessarily because of diplomatic constraints. In my view, it is because Israel has exceptional intelligence and an extraordinary ability to locate senior figures and operatives, thanks to the phenomenal intelligence network it has built over decades against its enemies. Historically, the United States has not pursued individuals at the level Israel has." From his home in Colorado, Schwartz watched with astonishment as the US assembled a massive military force around Iran. "We have sufficient forces and capabilities to achieve the objectives the president has directed the military to carry out," he said. "The first objective is destroying Iran's ability to deploy ballistic missiles – striking launchers, weapons stockpiles, and all the infrastructure required to produce missiles and launchers. We can do that through long-range strikes using both manned and unmanned aircraft. "We have the same capability against drone production. Many of the stockpiles we need to reach are underground, which makes it very difficult, but we have the ability to strike them and destroy the current command-and-control infrastructure, communications infrastructure, the physical infrastructure of the Basij, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian military. Another thing we have proven we can do is sink Iran's conventional navy. But there are still a significant number of sea mines in the area, small boats, and especially shore-based missiles positioned along the coastline, all of which pose a threat. We have the military capabilities to strike all of these, and it is mainly a matter of time. The US also has the backing of the military-industrial complex, which allows us to continue producing munitions and resupplying forces deployed in the field." A fighter jet lands on an American aircraft carrier (Photo: AFP) Between past and present Q: On a personal level – as a veteran who until recently was still an active-duty combat officer – what does it feel like to watch all of this from the sidelines? "I am still in very close contact with my unit and my former comrades in arms, and I know the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, well – we served together in the early 2000s. I absolutely trust them to manage the fighting, lead the forces in the field, and provide good recommendations to the political level. At the same time, it is obvious that you want to help and be part of what is happening, as any former officer surely feels." Q: What is the conversation in the US around the war against Iran? "If you asked Americans whether they oppose a nuclear Iran or want to see Iran's proxies disappear, you would get a lot of affirmative answers, regardless of which political side you asked. But according to polls in the US, the war is unpopular. One of the reasons is that we have seen many contradictions between the president, the secretary of state, and the secretary of defense regarding the war's objective. Many members of Congress believe the administration was not fully transparent about the war's goals and the circumstances behind the decision to launch the operation, and that is why there is a great deal of dissatisfaction among many people in the US." Schwartz, who will soon celebrate his 61st birthday, grew up in Colorado and enlisted in the military after graduating from the University of Idaho. "For three years, I served as a tank commander, because you cannot transfer to the Special Forces until you reach the rank of captain," he said. Only upon receiving that promotion did he fulfill his dream and join the Green Berets. He traveled the world – from Africa through the Netherlands to Afghanistan – and in 2018 was appointed, as noted, as the US security coordinator between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. An inside view When the correspondent admitted to Schwartz that he had not been aware that such a position existed, Schwartz was almost offended. "Of course it exists. The fact that you are unaware of it is definitely concerning," he laughed. "The main purpose is to serve as the senior envoy and coordinator between the IDF and the Israeli defense establishment, and the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria. At the same time, you also oversee all the American security assistance flowing to the Palestinian Authority, with the aim of training and developing Palestinian security forces. By the way, I had no connection whatsoever to what was happening in the Gaza Strip during my time in the role." Q: What did you learn about Israel during that period? "A great deal. I think the main thing I was glad to see was the level of intelligence coordination among the Shin Bet, the IDF, and senior figures in the Palestinian security establishment. The Palestinians do not want to highlight their cooperation with Israel, for reasons of optics, and the Israelis do not like to talk about their close relationship with the Palestinian Authority either – mainly because of pressure from settlers and the Israeli right. None of this I knew, of course, when I arrived in the role, but I learned it very quickly." "I have a great deal of respect and admiration for the Israeli security community," he said. "But in the same breath – just as happens in the US military – mistakes have been made along the way. Ideally, you learn from those mistakes and correct them." Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: AFP) Q: Such as? "I think the number of uninvolved civilian casualties in Gaza during the current war is a subject that needs to be examined. And, more specifically, in every strike, you need to assess how significant the target is and whether it justifies harming civilians. I am not talking about targeted killings, but about the destruction of block after block, street after street, of civilian infrastructure in Gaza. As a commander who has led soldiers in combat and has also lost subordinates, I understand the IDF's need to protect its fighters in the field. But I also think there have been many cases in which civilians in Gaza lost their lives unnecessarily. That kind of approach does not contribute much to your ability to advance a reconciliation process with the Palestinians, which is something Israel will be forced to do at some point in the future, because it has no choice but to live alongside the Palestinian people." The Hormuz scenario Q: If a ground invasion is not on the horizon, and a coup is not realistic, what does Schwartz expect to see in Iran in the near term? "Here is what I think will happen," he said. "We have severely limited Iran's ability to fire ballistic missiles and drones, and now all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran blocks the Strait, it will affect them too. More than 80% of the Iranian economy is based on oil exports, so blocking the strait does not serve their short-term interests. But Iranians have no problem absorbing damage to the economy – they have largely grown accustomed to it, after years of suffering under international sanctions." "Iran has patience and a willingness to sacrifice. So I think it is reasonable to assume that we will see Iranian attacks on ships – and primarily oil tankers – in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the mining of shipping lanes. As a result, I think there is a real chance of a maritime coalition being formed, along the lines of Operation Prosperity Guardian – the international maritime task force established in December 2023 under US leadership to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks – in the Strait of Hormuz, against Iran." Q: And then what? "In my view, at some point we will return to the negotiating table, once Iran is ready to reach agreements. I do not see the possibility of a large-scale ground invasion of Iran. I do not know what that would achieve, apart from putting the lives of American soldiers at risk."