Israel planned a short campaign against Iran, reality had other plans

2026-03-25 - 22:43

According to Israeli assessments, Trump's decision to try to pursue a negotiating track is tied in part to the energy crisis issue, but also to the president's personality and his impatience with stalemate. The very existence of the talks, together with his statements about a "great gift" he received from the Iranians, has already succeeded in lowering oil prices within a short time, a significant achievement for him in the short term. Sources familiar with the details say that, on the other hand, there is also a clear interest in continuing the fighting, since the nuclear issue, as well as other matters, has not yet been decided. One of the central issues is the Strait of Hormuz. Stopping the war could stop the rise in oil prices, but if he manages to reopen the strait by force, whether through an international coalition or through systematic strikes on every actor threatening the waterway, he could achieve his overarching goal: cutting off the supply of cheap Iranian oil to China, while gaining control over one of the world's most important maritime trade routes. At the same time, there are also considerations in favor of preventing further escalation. Security officials note that Iran has already suffered a heavy blow and economic damage amounting to tens of billions of dollars, while continued fighting could lead to attacks on oil tankers, a scenario that would trigger a sharp rise in insurance premiums and disrupt shipping across the region. Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: AFP Between negotiations and reality In internal discussions at the top of Israel's security establishment, officials are finding it difficult to assess where Trump will turn next. Sources familiar with the details note that even in previous attempts to negotiate with Iran, Tehran did not agree to give up uranium enrichment on its own soil, a red line for Washington. In Israel, officials recall that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was able in the past to influence Trump and prevent harm to Israeli interests, and the assessment is that this time too the path to an agreement will be complicated, if one exists at all. From Israel's perspective, its original war goal was clear: to deal a severe blow to Iran's military capabilities in a short campaign, while creating conditions for undermining the regime in part through activity by the Mossad and the CIA. In reality, however, although significant military achievements have been made, they have still not translated into any real destabilization of the government in Tehran. Furthermore, the campaign evolved into a more complex energy war, while the Iranians also drew lessons from the past and improved their ability to recover, including by appointing replacements in advance and preparing for significant damage. An Iranian flag stands near a collapsed building around Ferdowsi Square after an airstrike in central Tehran. Photo: EPA The decision is in Trump's hands Bottom line, security officials stress that "there is no chance Trump will do anything without taking the Israeli interest into account," especially given the continued flow of American forces into the region, including Marines and additional air squadrons. In Israel, officials are also referring to the American list of demands, which includes preventing a nuclear program, limiting missiles and ending support for proxy organizations, and they describe it as "an Iranian surrender document." At the same time, there is concern that Trump may prefer to reach understandings even at the price of compromises, in order to avoid the economic consequences of continued fighting. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israel is seeking to separate the fronts. The understanding is that Iran remains the central front, but that once the campaign ends Israel is expected to shift its effort to its north and increase pressure on Hezbollah, with the aim of bringing about its disarmament through a combination of military action and diplomatic pressure. Either way, the security establishment sums it up by saying that the key figure remains President Trump, and that the decisions he makes in the coming days will determine whether the campaign ends or moves into its next stage.