Israel nears full air superiority over Tehran

2026-03-02 - 19:28

In the first 72 hours of Operation Roaring Lion, the IDF dropped approximately 3,000 munitions on Iranian soil, more than were dropped during Operation Rising Lion in June. The high rate of fire is expected to continue over the next two days, by which point Israel will have dropped around 6,000 munitions on targets across the Islamic Republic of Iran. For comparison, US forces have so far dropped roughly half that number, about 1,500 munitions. However, some of the American bombs are significantly heavier than the Israeli ones, meaning the quantity alone does not necessarily reflect overall firepower. The first four days of Operation Roaring Lion were planned down to the last detail, with what one Israeli source described as a "crazy pace of fire." Targets were carefully divided between the Israel Defense Forces and the US military. By the end of the day, Israeli officials assess, the path to Tehran will be fully opened, enabling Israeli Air Force pilots to fly over the Iranian capital without fear of threats. As of now, pilots are still operating under a certain level of risk. The Iranian strike in Bahrain. Iranian forces appear to be acting irrationally. Photo: Reuters Iran's response also appears to be evolving. During the first two days of the operation, Tehran acted in what Israeli officials described as a rational manner relative to the scale of the damage inflicted, focusing its attacks in the Gulf primarily on US bases. As of Tuesday, however, Iranian strikes in the Gulf have expanded to include oil-related targets, such as facilities belonging to Saudi energy giant Aramco. Israeli officials believe Iran calculates that by increasing the pace of attacks against Gulf states and against areas and assets important to the US, such as oil infrastructure, Washington will push to bring the operation to a close. That line of thinking is understandable, officials say, given that on the eve of the campaign Israel itself feared Gulf states might persuade Trump not to join the strikes. However, in light of Iran's attacks on those same countries, Israeli officials now identify what they describe as the opposite trend, one that is favorable to Jerusalem: the formation of an emerging anti-Iranian axis comprising moderate Sunni Gulf states. At present, Israeli officials say Trump wants to continue the operation. The concern in Jerusalem is that an unforeseen development could cause him to change his mind. Despite statements from Washington suggesting the campaign could last four to five weeks, Israeli officials are well aware of Trump's preference for generating rapid success and seeking a swift conclusion before achievements begin to erode. For that reason, officials say, Israel's current objective is to deepen operational gains and ensure that Trump remains on board. So far, they stress, there are no signs of any slowdown from Washington.